The cognitive shortcut, frequently studied in psychology, describes a mental process where individuals estimate the likelihood of events based on how readily examples come to mind. If instances are easily recalled, the event is judged as more probable or frequent. For instance, if news reports frequently highlight airplane crashes, an individual might overestimate the risk of flying compared to driving, even though statistical data indicates driving is more dangerous.
This mental shortcut impacts decision-making in various contexts, from personal choices to broader societal judgments. Understanding this cognitive bias is crucial for improving rational thinking and mitigating potential errors in judgment. Early research by Tversky and Kahneman significantly contributed to defining and understanding this heuristic, demonstrating its influence on human judgment and decision-making processes.
