The inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it, is a cognitive distortion encountered across various domains. For instance, following an unexpected election result, individuals might assert they “knew it all along,” overlooking their prior uncertainty or even contradictory predictions. This phenomenon involves a retrospective reinterpretation of information to align with the actual outcome.
Understanding this cognitive distortion is crucial in mitigating its influence on decision-making and judgment. Recognizing that events often appear more predictable in retrospect than they were prospectively can foster more realistic assessments of past choices and future possibilities. Its historical recognition stems from research highlighting systematic errors in human reasoning, contributing to the development of behavioral economics and related fields that challenge assumptions of perfect rationality.
